Forecasters Ranker's Users Guide
This program helps you to rank various forecasters/analysts (humans, software programs, methods) according to their historical performance.
Definitions
Variable - is any continuous or discrete variable with values changing randomly in time. For example, stocks prices, currency rates, credit risks, lotteries results, results of sport events, marketing data (sales, orders…), insurance data (claims, ruins…), weather parameters, and so on.
Category- is a name of a group to which a set of variables belongs to. For example, stocks, currency rates, sales, sports, lotto, insurance, weather.
Forecast on a given date (time interval) -is a set of two values, boundaries of an interval in which a value of the forecasting variable is expected to come on the given date.
Forecaster - is a person, software, or method who/which gives forecasts.
1. Adding a category.
-Click on the button "Add Category".
-Enter a name of the category.
-Click on the "Ok" button.
2. Selecting a category.
-Click on the category in the list. The new window "Data" will appear.
3. Adding a variable.
-Click on the button "Add Variable" of the window "Data".
-Enter a name of the variable.
-Click on the "Ok" button.
4. Adding a value of the variable.
-Click on the "Add Row" button.
-Enter the Date and click "Ok".
-Press "Enter".
-Enter the value to the cell of the table.
5. Adding a forecaster.
-Click on the button "Add Forecaster" of the window "Data".
-Enter a name of the forecaster.
-Click on the "Ok" button.
6. Adding a forecast.
-Press "Enter".
-Enter the data to the cells of the table.
7. Saving data.
-Click on the "Save Table" button of the form "Data".
8. Ranking forecasters.
-Click on the "Rank" button of the form "Data". The new window "Results" will appear.
9. Changing a time frame.
-Enter new values of the time interval on the form "Results".
10. Ranking forecasters on a new time frame.
-Click on the "Recalculate" button of the form "Results".
11. Saving results.
-Enter a name of the file into the field "File".
-Click on the "Save" button of the form "Results".
12. Printing results.
-Click on the "Print" button of the form "Results".