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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 26 Dec 93 23:21:20 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                26 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 360, 12/26/93
10.7 FLUX=125    90-AVG=099        SSN=092      BKI=1111 1213  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B4.2     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2012 3223  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=005,005,005,008,009,010,006,021   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=02:007
 XRAY-MAX= M1.5   @ 0412UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.3   @ 1315UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2010UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2225UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 0915UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55354NT @ 0013UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 2142UT  BOUTF-AVG=55347NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1533UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-053NT@ 0751UT  G6-AVG=+093,+022,-028
 FLUXFCST=STD:130,130,135;SESC:130,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,025/010,015,025
    KFCST=0103 4011 2223 4222  27DAY-AP=008,004   27DAY-KP=4222 2222 2101 1211
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.5/1N@0412,N06W02(7640);**SWEEP:II=2@0728-0737UTC;
          **245STRM:0000-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 DEC 93 was  46.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 25 DEC 93 are: 1o 3- 1+ 3-   2- 1o 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7640 (N09W08) has
       been a most prolific region, producing an M1/1N flare at
       26/0412UT and no less than 15 C-class flares ranging from a
       C1/SF to a C6/1F flare. A Type II radio burst was detected from
       this region at 26/0728UT in association with a C4/1F flare.
       Region 7640 continued, but slowed, its growth and remains
       magnetically complex. Regions 7641 (N04W08) and 7643 (S18E41)
       showed no significant development.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7640 has a fair chance for an
       occasional M-class flare and a small chance for an isolated
       X-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the
       forecast period then active as a coronal hole rotates into a
       favorable position. High latitude stations could see minor to
       major storming by the end of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 27 dec-29 dec

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 dec-29 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/30
                        Minor Storm           05/10/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/25/25
                        Minor Storm           05/15/35
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Propagation over the high and polar latitude paths have
       returned to normal due to the elevated levels of solar
       activity.  Near-normal conditions should dominate until about
       29 December when signals could again become degraded over the
       middle to polar latitude regions due to a recurrent coronal
       hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7640  N09W08  201  0660 FKI  23  059 BETA-GAMMA
7641  N04W08  201  0080 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7643  S18E41  152  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7635  N02W83  276                    PLAGE
7642  N11W47  240                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 DECEMBER TO 29 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7633 S18   090
7630 S10   087
7629 S20   083
7634 S12   073


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0023 0029 0032              C1.6       1900
 0041 0041 0041                          110
 0140 0140 0140                          400
 0353 0412 0421 7640  N06W02 M1.5  1N
 0508 0519 0528 7640  N05W04 C1.7  SF    310
 0715 0727 0734 7640  N06W06 C4.6  1F   3000 63     II
 0937 0941 0944 7640  N05W09 C2.5  SF   1700
 1029 1039 1043              C4.0        150
 1053 1053 1053                          200
 1252 1253 1255                          420
 1541 1551 1601 7640  N07W11 C6.5  1F   1600 69
 1733 1736 1738 7640  N11W09 C1.0  SF    210



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
26/ 0728              0737       N06W06   RSP    C4.6   19  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
25 Dec: 0103  0108  0111  C1.3                                         
        0115  0119  0125  C1.2                                         
        0132  0134  0137        SF  7640  N06E13                       
        0327  0330  0333  C1.5                                         
        0422  0429  0431  C6.2  SF  7640  N07E12                       
        0440  0449  0455  C4.3  SF  7640  N03E15                       
        0523  0530  0539  C4.4  SF  7640  N07E11                       
        0612  0616  0619  C1.7                                         
        0657  0716  0720  C5.8  SF  7640  N07E10                       
        0830  0839  0845  C4.5  SF  7640  N08E17                       
        0906  0910  0915  C2.1                                         
        1139  1245  1253        SN  7640  N08E10                       
        1229  1233  1236  C2.3                                         
        1241  1244  1248  C2.2                                         
        1411  1415  1417  C1.0                                         
        1441  1452  1455  C6.0  SF  7640  N07E07                       
        1521  1524  1530        SF  7640  N07E06                       
        1559  1602  1606        SF  7640  N07E06                       
        1615  1615  1623        SF  7640  N07E06                       
        1706  1711  1715  C4.6  SF  7640  N08E07                       
        1743  1745  1750        SF  7641  N04E08                       
        1826  1834  1903        SF  7640  N07E04                       
        1936  1939  1941  C1.8  SF  7640  N06E04                       
        1939  1940  1946        SF  7640  N07E04                       
        2021  2025  2030  C1.0                                         
        2117  2123  2128  C2.6                                         
        2258  2309  2322        SF  7640  N08E08                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7640:  8   1   0    17   0   0   0   0    017  (60.7)
  Region 7641:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 3.6)
Uncorrellated: 10   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    010  (35.7)

 Total Events: 028 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
25 Dec: 0657  0716  0720  C5.8  SF  7640  N07E10   III
        1521  1524  1530        SF  7640  N07E06   III
        2021  2025  2030  C1.0                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


