From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Mon Dec 27 09:15 EET 1993
Return-Path: solar-daily-request@lut.fi
Received: from lut.fi (listserv@lut.fi [157.24.10.8]) by cs.tut.fi (8.6.4/8.6.4) with SMTP id JAA04536 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>; Mon, 27 Dec 1993 09:14:58 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA02884; Mon, 27 Dec 1993 09:12:32 +0200
Received: from cc.lut.fi by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA02520; Mon, 27 Dec 1993 09:05:39 +0200
Received: from ftp.funet.fi by cc.lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA00458; Mon, 27 Dec 1993 08:30:12 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca ([142.66.3.25]) by nic.funet.fi with SMTP id <91711-8>; Sun, 26 Dec 1993 07:57:41 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA07017; Sat, 25 Dec 93 22:57:07 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9312260557.AA07017@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: 	Sun, 26 Dec 1993 07:57:04 +0200
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1212
Content-Type: text
Content-Length: 12269
Status: RO


                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                25 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 359, 12/25/93
10.7 FLUX=119.1  90-AVG=099        SSN=120      BKI=1322 2111  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B5.9     FLU1=9.5E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1313 2122  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=006,027,010,012,015,007,009,006   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=01:004
 XRAY-MAX= M1.5   @ 1756UT    XRAY-MIN= B3.9   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0740UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0455UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2215UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0850UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 0006UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 2047UT  BOUTF-AVG=55349NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+066,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1816UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-055NT@ 0921UT  G6-AVG=+090,+022,-028
 FLUXFCST=STD:124,130,135;SESC:124,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,005/007,010,015
    KFCST=1123 3211 1223 3322  27DAY-AP=004,008   27DAY-KP=1101 2211 4222 2222
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.5/2N@1756,N07E06(7640)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 DEC 93 was  52.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 24 DEC 93 are: 2o 1o 2+ 3-   3- 3- 2- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate the past 24 hours. Region
       7640 (N09E08) produced an M1/SN flare at 1756Z as well as
       numerous C-class flares during this period.  The region
       continues to grow in white light while exhibiting increasing
       inversion line complexity.  All other regions are stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate.  With Rgn 7640 now showing a possible delta config-
       uration in the main leader group, M-class flaring potential
       remains high.

       STD: An additional full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image has been
       appended to this report, showing the large size and brightness
       of the x-ray loop structures composing Region 7640.  This
       recent image casts doubt on the existence of an eastern
       hemisphere coronal hole.  More will be known over the next
       several days as the suspected area rotates into a better
       position for analysis.  Region 7640 is capable of spawning a
       major flare and bears watching closely.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels in
       the mid latitudes with some active periods experienced at
       higher latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next 24 hrs.

            Event probabilities 26 dec-28 dec

                             Class M    65/70/70
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 dec-28 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/25
                        Minor Storm           05/10/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitude paths, and slightly below normal to
       near-normal for night-sector high and polar latitude paths.
       Conditions over the high latitudes are beginning to improve due
       to elevated solar flux levels from Region 7640.  The potential
       for stronger or more frequent SWF activity is increasing as
       this solar region shows greater overall complexity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7640  N09E08  198  0650 FKI  22  085 BETA-GAMMA
7641  N04E06  200  0080 HSX  03  004 ALPHA
7642  N11W34  240  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7643  S17E54  152  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7635  N02W70  276                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 DECEMBER TO 28 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7633 S18   090
7630 S10   087
7629 S20   083


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1229 1233 1236              C2.3        130
 1741 1756 1800 7640  N07E06 M1.5  SN
 1822 1823 1823                          130
 2021 2025 2030              C1.0        170



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
24/A2327          25/B1457       N11W40   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
24 Dec: 0324  0327  0329  B6.0                                         
        0333  0339  0345  B7.4  SF  7640  N07E27                       
        0854  0859  0911  C2.7  SN  7640  N07E22                       
        0923  0926  0928  C1.7                                         
        0946  0959  1001  C3.8  SN  7640  N07E20                       
       B1151  1157  1215        SB  7640  N07E24                       
        1208  1216  1221  C5.1  SF  7640  N08E22                       
        1318  1319 A1328        SF  7635  N04W49                       
        1322  1324 A1329        SF  7640  N08E26                       
        1333  1341  1348  C2.5  SF  7640  N07E20                       
        1411  1415  1425  C1.4                                         
        1631  1635  1640  C1.0                                         
        1725  1731  1735  C3.9  SN  7640  N06E17                       
        1905  1910  1913  B8.9                                         
        2102  2109  2112  C1.8  SF  7640  N07E16                       
        2115  2120  2122  C2.1  SF  7640  N06E15                       
        2246  2249  2252  B6.7                                         
        2259  2303  2312  B7.1                                         
        2353  2357  0000  B9.1  SF  7640  N07E15                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7635:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 4.8)
  Region 7640:  7   2   0    11   2   0   0   0    013  (61.9)
Uncorrellated:  3   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (33.3)

 Total Events: 021 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
24 Dec: 0946  0959  1001  C3.8  SN  7640  N07E20   Continuum
       B1151  1157  1215        SB  7640  N07E24   Continuum
        1208  1216  1221  C5.1  SF  7640  N08E22   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     25 December 1993, 04:40 UTC

                                    North
                  .............,,,,::,::::::::::,,,,,,,,.,........
              ............,,.,,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::,,,,,......        
         ........,,,,,,,,.,,,,,::,::,,,::::,,,,,,,,::::::::::::,,,,....        
     .  ....,,,,,::,..,,,,,,,,,::,::::,::::,,:::::,,::::::::::::::,,,...       
     ....,,,,::::,,,...,,,,,,,,:;:::,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::;:::,,,........
   .....,,,::::,,,,,,,,,,,:::::;;::::::::::;:::::::::::::::::::::;;::::,,,.....
  ...,,,:::::,,:::,::,,,:::::;;;;;:::;;;;;;;;::::::::::::::::::::::;;;;::,,..,.
  ..,,,::;;::,,,:::::::;;;;;------;;;;;;;;---;;;;;;;;;;;::::::::::::;--;::,,,,,
 ..,,:::;;:::,,,::::::;-+---+++++++--+-;;---++--;;;;;;;;;::::::::::::;-;;:::,,,
..,,:::;;;;::::,,::::;++||!!!11!!||++|||+;----++++-----;;;:::::::::::::;;;:::::
.,,::;;;;;::::::,:::;;|1!134434432!|!!||!|-;;----++------;;;;;::::::::::;;;::::
.,:::;;;;;;;;:::::::;;+12*@###@@*32111!!!|+;;-------||----;;;;;;:;;;;;;:;;;;:::
,,::;--;----;::::::;;-||!33*@#@@@@2!!!!!!|+;;;--------;;;;;::;;;;;;-+--;;-;:::,
,::;--+;----;;::::;;-|111334444#31!|||||++-;;;;;;;;;;::::::;;;;;--+!31+;;;;:::,
,:;;-++------;:::::;;-+||!11!!121!|+++||+-;;;;:::::::::::::;;;;::;-!!|+;:;;:::,
:;;;----+||+-;;:::::;;;-+||||!1!++++----;;:::::,,,,:::,::::::::,:;;-+|-;,;:::,,
,:;;--+++|||+-;;-::;;;;;-----++--;;;;;;;;::::::,:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,:;;::,,,;::,,,
::;;--||!!|+++11;;;+---||+---;;;;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;::,,,
:;;---+!11!+++|!-;--;;-+|+;;;;;;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,.....,,,,.,,,,,:;;:,,,..
:;;--+|!!!|+--;;;;;;::;;;::;;;;;:::::,,,,,,::::::,:,,,,,,..,....,....,,::,,....
:;;--++|||--;;;:::::::::::;;;;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::,,.....
::;;--++|||-;:::;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,.,::,,......
:::;;---++||-;;;:::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,......,,,,,,,,,,,.,,..,:::,,... ...
,::::;;----++-;:::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,.........,,,,:::,,...     
,,,:::::;;-----;::::,:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,....,.....,.,,.,,,,:,,,,...      
.,,,,,:::::;;;;;;;::::::::,:,:,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,.........,,..,,,,,,,....         
...,,,,,,,:::::;;;;--;;;::::,,,,,,,,,..........  .  ............               
.....,.,,,,,:::;;;;;----;;::,,... ...                                          
.........,,,,:::;;;;;;;;;::::,,.            .                                  
  ..........,,,,,:::,,,,,,,,...                                                
     . ................. .                                                     

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


