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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 24 Dec 93 22:11:13 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                24 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)

                           **  MERRY CHRISTMAS  **

SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 358, 12/24/93
10.7 FLUX=111.2  90-AVG=098        SSN=117      BKI=2122 2322  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B4.0     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2123 3322  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=015,008,017,013,015,020,010,011   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=02:016
 XRAY-MAX= M1.3   @ 1507UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.5   @ 0222UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2155UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1710UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1425UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1005UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55362NT @ 0023UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1841UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1813UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-068NT@ 0636UT  G6-AVG=+087,+022,-029
 FLUXFCST=STD:115,117,120;SESC:115,117,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/005,007,010
    KFCST=1122 2111 1223 2211  27DAY-AP=004,004   27DAY-KP=2100 1212 1101 2211
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.3/1N@1507,N08E29(7640);**245STRM:0402-1540UTC;
          **MINFLR:M1.1/1N@1815,N07E20(7640)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 DEC 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 23 DEC 93 are: 2- 3- 1+ 3-   3- 2+ 2- 3+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate.  Region 7640 (N08E21)
       produced two M1/1N flares maxing at 1507Z and 1815Z.  No radio
       activity was reported with these two flares.  Numerous C-class
       flaring has also occurred in this region over the past 24
       hours. White light observations indicate 7640 has nearly
       doubled in spot number and has grown significantly in area with
       rapid penumbra development throughout the region.  Two new
       Regions were numbered overnight -- Rgn 7642 (N10W20) and Rgn
       7643 (S16E69).  All other regions were stable.  One other item
       of note to pass on:  just minutes ago, Santa Claus was
       positively identified on radar leaving the polar cap and
       passing through the auroral oval.  Any minor disturbances in
       ionospheric signatures should be attributed to this seasonal
       phenomenon.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       moderate.  Continued development in Region 7640 should produce
       more M-class activity with a slight chance of X-class activity.

       STD: Big Bear reported new positive polarity flux emerging just
       slightly southwest of the main negative polarity leader flux.
       If this feature persists, it could result in additional C and
       M class flare activity and may even possibly provide a
       mechanism for a stronger event. This region now encompasses an
       impressive 73 spots and is bright in x-rays, as illistrated in
       the appended full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image.  A small and
       potentially mildly geoeffective southern hemisphere coronal
       hole crossed the central meridian over the last 24 to 36 hours.
       Although it is still difficult to discern, there appears to be
       a moderately large coronal hole to the east and north of Region
       7640, just now rotating into view.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet.

            Event probabilities 25 dec-27 dec

                             Class M    60/65/70
                             Class X    05/10/10
                             Proton     01/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 dec-27 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            STD: HF propagation conditions have not changed over the
       last 24 hours.  High and polar latitude regions continued to
       observe occasional periods of minor signal degradation (poor
       propagation).  Middle and low latitudes experienced near-normal
       propagation.  There was a confirmed minor SWF on frequencies as
       high as approximately 10 to 12 MHz at about 18:15 UTC.  No
       changes are expected over the next 72 hours.  SWF activity will
       remain quite possible over daylit paths throughout the next
       several days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7635  N02W57  276  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7640  N08E21  198  0510 FKI  21  073 BETA-GAMMA
7641  N04E20  199  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7642  N11W20  239  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7643  S16E69  150  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 DECEMBER TO 27 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7633 S18   090


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1411 1415 1425              C1.4        120
 1450 1507 1516 7640  N08E29 M1.3  1N
 1803 1815 1824 7640  N07E20 M1.1  1N


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
55   N23E86 S30E86 N10E38 N28E46  169  ISO   NEG   028 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
23 Dec: 0008  0012  0014  C1.4  SF  7640  N07E42                       
        0018  0021  0024  C1.1  SF  7640  N07E41                       
        0143  0149  0151  B6.2                                         
        0235  0238  0240  B6.0                                         
        0255  0300  0304  B5.5  SF  7640  N07E39                       
        0425  0429  0431  B5.0                                         
        0526  0531  0533  C4.4  SF  7640  N07E38        75       330       310
        0556  0603  0619  B8.8                                         
        0733  0743  0749  C1.0                                         
        0805  0813  0816  B9.0                                         
        0840  0841  0850        SF  7640  N06E42                       
        0856  0904  0907  C2.9  SF  7640  N07E37        32        96        66
        0950  0954  0956  C1.2  SF  7640  N07E37                       
        1136  1139  1143  B4.3                                         
        1144  1150  1157  B6.9                                         
        1232  1236  1239  C2.9                                         
        1241  1245  1251  C1.9  SF  7640  N07E37                       
        1305  1306  1317        SF  7640  N04E37                       
        1437  1444  1454  C2.0  SF  7640  N05E34                       
        1615  1623  1633  C2.9  SF  7640  N03E43                       
       B2031 U2031  2033        SF  7640  N05E36                       
        2254  2320  2352  C3.1  SF  7640  N06E31                           150


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7640:  9   0   0    13   0   0   0   0    013  (59.1)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    009  (40.9)

 Total Events: 022 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
23 Dec: 0018  0021  0024  C1.1  SF  7640  N07E41   III
        0255  0300  0304  B5.5  SF  7640  N07E39   III
        0526  0531  0533  C4.4  SF  7640  N07E38   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     24 December 1993, 05:40 UTC

                                    North
                           ..,,::::::::::::::::,,....... . ...
              ............,,,:::::::::::::::::::::,,,,:::::,,,,,....           
             ....,,,,,,....,,,,,::::::,,,,,,,,,:,:,,,,,:::;;;:::,,,....        
         .....,,,,,,......,,,,,:::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::::,,,....      
     .....,,,,:::,,,,,....,,::::,::::::::::::,::::,,,:,,,,,,,,::;;::,,,....  . 
     ...,,:::::::::::::,,,,,:::::::::;:::::::::::::::,,,::,,,,,,::;;:::,,,.....
   ..,,,::;;;;::;;-----;:,,::::;;;;;-;;:::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,:,:;;;;;:,,.,..
 ...,,::;;;;;;;;+++++|||+-;;;::;;------;;;;;;;;;::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,;++-;::,,,,
...,,::;;;::;;;;!11111111!||||+-;--++||+--;;-;;;:::::::::::,,,,::,,,,;|+-;;::::
.,,::;---;:,::;;!33222223321!111!+---+++||+----;;;;:;;;;;;;;:::::,,,,:;|+-;;;::
.,::;---;;::::;+2444*44##*42!11222!;;-+-++++++++----;;;::;;;;:;;;;:::::+|+--;::
,::;;----;::::-|!23#@@@@@*32222222!-;;-------------;;::;;;;;;;;--;;;::::|++-;::
,:;;-+++--;;;;-|124**##@@@4322211!+;;--------;;::::::;--------|||++;::::-|+-;::
:;;--++++-;;;;-!3334*43221!!!!!|||-;;;;;;;;;;::,,,:::;;;;;;-+!242|+;:::,:|+-;;:
:;--+|||+-:::;;|!11111!!|||+|||+-;;::::::::::::,,,::::::::::-!1!!1+;:,,,,+--;::
;;-+|!!!|-::::;---+++||+|+++--;;::::::,,,,,:,:,,:,:::::,:,,:;-----;;,..,:--;:::
;--+|!11!+;::;-;-++------;;;;:::::,,,,,,::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::,,...,,;|-;::,
:;;-+!22!|21-++++!1|-;;;;;::::,:,,,,,,::::,,....... ..,,,,,,,::,,.....,:;-;::,,
:;--|!232|!1----+||+-;;;;::::::,,,,,::::::,::,...  .......,...,,....,,,:;;:,,..
;;-+||!1!+-;;;;;;;;;;;;;;:::,,:::,:::::::,,,..    ........:.,,..,,...,,;:,,....
;;-+++|||+;:::::;;;;;;;;::::,,,,,::::::,,,,,,.......,.....,,,,,...,.,,:::,.....
:;;---+++++;;-;;;;;;;;;:::,,,,,::,,,,,,,.,................,.,.,,,.,,:;::,......
::;;;----+++-;;;;;;;;::::,,,,,:::,,,,..,............,.......,...,,,:::,,,......
,:::;;;----++-;;;::::::,,,::,::,,,,,,......,.................,:,,:;::,,,...    
,,,:::;;;;------;:::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,.........,......,....,,,,,::,,,...      
.,,,,::::;;;;;;---;;::::::::::,:,:,,....,................,.,,,,,....           
..,,,,,,:::::;;;------;;::::,,,,:,,..            .....                         
.....,,,,,::::;;;;-------;:,. ...               ,                              
 ....,,.,,,,,:::;;;;;;;;;:::::,,..                                             
   ........,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...                                             
     .  ............... . ...                                                  

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


