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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 24 Dec 93 10:19:55 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                23 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 357, 12/23/93
10.7 FLUX=105.0  90-AVG=098        SSN=070      BKI=1303 2223  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B3.4     FLU1=2.0E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2313 3223  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=008,021,004,025,015,018,010,038   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.4   @ 0532UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.1   @ 0337UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2135UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2220UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +5.6DB @ 1915UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0935UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55361NT @ 0431UT   BOUTF-MIN=55336NT @ 2225UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+137NT@ 1627UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-055NT@ 1004UT  G6-AVG=+094,+022,-027
 FLUXFCST=STD:107,110,112;SESC:107,110,112 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/010,005,005
    KFCST=2223 3322 1122 2211  27DAY-AP=009,004   27DAY-KP=2212 2342 2100 1212
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 DEC 93 was  38.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 22 DEC 93 are: 2- 1o 2- 4o   3+ 2- 2o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low with Region 7640 (N10E34)
       producing most of the activity in the form of numerous C-class
       flares.  Rgn 7635 (N02W44) and rgn 7641 (N05E33) appear stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       be low.  The interaction of rgns 7640 and 7641 could produce
       M-class acivity as they transit the disk.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 24 dec-26 dec

                             Class M    25/30/30
                             Class X    01/05/05
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 dec-26 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/05/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued to be mildly
       degraded over the high and polar latitude paths.  Some weak
       strengthening of the ionosphere may take place over the next
       several days due to gradually increasing solar flux levels.
       Middle latitudes have experienced and should continue to
       experience near-normal propagation.  No changes are forseen
       over the next 72 hours, through 26 December inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7635  N02W44  276  0020 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7640  N10E34  198  0450 FKI  17  038 BETA-GAMMA
7641  N05E33  199  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 DECEMBER TO 26 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0018 0021 0024 7640  N07E41 C1.1  SF   4600
 0143 0149 0151              B6.2        150
 0158 0200 0158                          120
 0255 0300 0304 7640  N07E39 B5.5  SF    140
 0526 0531 0533 7640  N07E38 C4.4  SF   2300 75
 0935 0937 0937                          200
 1901 1901 1901                          150


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
23/ 2254     2320     2352       N06E31   LDE    C3.1   58


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
55   S05E66 S13E63 N29E43 N29E43  184  ISO   NEG   007 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
22 Dec: 0726  0730  0734  B2.3                                         
        0757  0800  0809        SF  7640  N08E55                       
        0932  0938  0948  C2.1  SF  7640  N09E56                       
        1107  1111  1113  C1.2  SF  7640  N07E49                       
        1115  1119  1121  C1.4                                         
        1146  1239  1242        SF  7640  N07E48                       
        1259  1302  1304  B7.0  SF  7640  N06E46                       
        1346  1350  1352  B5.7                                         
        1527  1530  1534  B3.5                                         
        1626  1631  1636  B3.5  SF  7640  N07E45                       
        1645  1649  1652  B7.6  SF  7640  N05E44                       
        2230  2238  2240  B4.5  SF  7640  N07E42                       
        2252  2305  2310        SF  7640  N07E41                       
        2310  2318  2325  B4.3  SF  7640  N08E46                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7640:  2   1   0    10   1   0   0   0    011  (73.3)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (26.7)

 Total Events: 015 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
22 Dec: 1259  1302  1304  B7.0  SF  7640  N06E46   III
        1346  1350  1352  B5.7                     III
        1721  1726  1728  M1.4  1B  7640  N07E45   V

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


