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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 93 21:11:43 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 355, 12/21/93
10.7 FLUX=092.9  90-AVG=098        SSN=045      BKI=3233 3323  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=2.7E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3233 3323  PAI=012
  BOU-DEV=031,011,029,025,024,028,017,027   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.2   @ 0058UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 1558UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1330UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0705UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1025UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 2354UT   BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1739UT  BOUTF-AVG=55348NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1654UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 0717UT  G6-AVG=+089,+021,-029
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,097,098;SESC:095,097,098 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,007,005/010,010,005
    KFCST=1112 3111 1112 3111  27DAY-AP=005,006   27DAY-KP=2211 2121 2110 2223
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 DEC 93 was  41.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 DEC 93 are: 3o 2o 1+ 3-   2o 2o 3- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Only an occasional C-class flare
       has been noted during the period. Region 7640 (N10E57) shows
       the most potential for flares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue to
       be at a low level. Region 7640 is still capable of producing an
       isolated M-class flare.

       STD: A full-disk x-ray image from the Yohkoh satellite has been
       appended to this report, showing the increased emissions
       associated with Region 7640.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels
       were observed at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet throughout the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 22 dec-24 dec

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 dec-24 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions have not changed over the last
       24 hours.  Low and middle latitudes continue to observe
       near-normal propagation, while high and polar latitudes
       continue to observe near-normal propagation except during the
       local night and morning sectors where occasional minor signal
       degradation is producing slightly below-normal conditions.  No
       changes are expected over the next several days.  High and
       polar latitude paths should see gradual improvements over the
       next 72 hours as levels of geomagnetic activity drop to
       generally quiet levels.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7635  N01W14  273  0060 CSO  04  004 BETA
7640  N09E58  201  0250 FSO  16  010 BETA
7641  N04E60  199  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7632  N05W85  344                    PLAGE
7637  N09W72  331                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 DECEMBER TO 24 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7623 S13   158


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
20 Dec: 0152  0200  0209  C1.3                                         
        0235  0245  0259  B5.2                                         
        0613  0625  0638  B3.6                                         
        0713  0731  0751  C1.5                                         
        0838  0846  0854  C1.3                                         
        1425  1433  1437  B6.0  SF  7640  N08E80                       
        1531  1536  1541  B6.8  SF  7640  N07E76                       
        1819  1820  1829        SF  7640  N07E75                       
        1847  1903  1910  B6.4  SF  7640  N08E74                       
        1916  1917  1927        SF  7640  N07E72                       
        2222  2225  2236  B4.7                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7640:  0   0   0     5   0   0   0   0    005  (45.5)
Uncorrellated:  3   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    006  (54.5)

 Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
20 Dec: 0152  0200  0209  C1.3                     III
        1847  1903  1910  B6.4  SF  7640  N08E74   III,V

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     21 December 1993, 06:20 UTC

                                    North
        .       ....,,,,,,,,:,,,:,,,,...           .........
     ....   .....,,,,,::::::::::,,:::,,,...    ...,,,,,:,,,,,,...              
  ......,......,,,,,::::::::,,,,,,,.,.,,,,,,...  ...,..,,::::::,,,.....        
 .......,.....,,,,:::::::,:,,,,,,,,....,,......    .......,,:::::,,,....       
 ..,,,,,:,,,,,::,,,,,:::::::,,,,,,,,...,.......... .........,,::;::,,,,...     
 .,,,,:::::;;;::::,::::::::::::,,.,,.,,,.,,........ . ....,,,,,::;;::,,,,..... 
.,,,::;;-----;;;;:::::::::::::,:,,,,.....,,,,,..............,,,::;;;;::,,,,....
,,::;--+|||+------;:::::::::::::,:,........,,,,,,...........,,,::-+--;;:::,,,,.
,;-+||!121|+---++++-;;:::::::::,:;::,,..,,,,.,,,,..........,,,,,,;-----;;;:::,,
;+|!||!3*2!||++-++++--;;;;::::,:::-:,,,,,,,,,,,............,,,,,,:;:;;-++--;;::
;-||!12*#*1!||+-++-++------;;,,:;::::,:::::::,,,,,,.........:,,,,:;;::;|||+--;:
:;+!223#@@3!||+++----------;:,.,;;:;::::;--;;::,,,,,,........,,,,,,,,:;+|!!+-;;
;-|!124##4!!|+------;;;;;;:::::;-+--;;;;+!11|-:,,.............,,,,,::-1+!!!|+-;
;-+!124*2!|+----;;;;;::::::::;;;;;;;;;-|132!+-:,,..    ......,,,,,,,:-++!!!|+-;
;-+|!221|++-;;;;;;::::::,,,:::::,,,:::;|!|--||+-;,.. .  .......,,,,,,,;-|++--;;
;--++|||+-;;;;::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::;--;:,...... ..,....,,,:,,,::;-;;::,
;;--+|!+;;;::::::::::,,,,,....,,,,,,,,,.,:,,,,......    .,,,,,,:,;:,,:::;-;:,,,
:;--+|!1-;;:::::::::,,,,. .. ..,,,,......,,........,   .,,:,,,,,...,,:::;;;:,,.
;;---+13|;:::::::,,:,,,......,,,,........................,,........,::,:;;:,,..
;;;;-+|!|;:::::,,,,,,,..,.,,.,,............. ..  ..................,;,,;;::,,..
:;;;---++-::,,,,,,,,...,,,,,......,,........          ....   .....,.,,:;::,....
::;;;---++-:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..............         ..............,.,.,,;;::,.... 
:::;;;;-----:,.,,,,,,,...,.........,...          ................,,::::,..     
,:::::;;;;;;;;,,,,,,,,.............    .    ..     ............,,:::,,...      
,,,,,:,:::::;;;;:,,,,,,............ ..  . .  .  .....,... ..,.,,,,....         
..,,,,,,,:::::;;;;::,,,.........,.... . ,.     ...      .....,,,..             
....,,.,,,,::::;;;;-;::,..                               .,,,,..               
 ........,,,,::::;;;;;;;:,..             ..             ..                     
  .........,,,,,:::::::;;::::,,..  .                                           
     .  .......,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,.....,,,,,,,,....                                
             ...............       ........                                    

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


