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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 93 21:39:01 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                20 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 354, 12/20/93
10.7 FLUX=091.0  90-AVG=098        SSN=053      BKI=3223 2232  BAI=010
BGND-XRAY=B1.8     FLU1=2.9E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3213 2233  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=031,017,011,021,012,016,023,017   DEV-AVG=018 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.5   @ 0730UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 0128UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2200UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1930UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2120UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0955UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55362NT @ 0259UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1917UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1849UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 0846UT  G6-AVG=+093,+020,-028
 FLUXFCST=STD:093,095,097;SESC:093,095,097 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,007,007/012,010,010
    KFCST=2333 3322 1223 3322  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=2211 2221 2211 2121
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 DEC 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 DEC 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. New Region 7640 (N09E70) produced
       several small C-class flares and numerous lesser fluctuations.
       This region is new from last rotation and appears to be in a
       growth phase. The spots here are not in a standard bipolar
       configuration. Region 7641 (N03E75) also appeared but was
       quiet. This is the return of old Region 7624 which seems to
       have slowly decayed during its invisible hemisphere transit.
       Other regions were stable and quiet. Recent Yohkoh images do
       not show the large coronal hole in the northeast quadrant that
       has been persistent for many rotations. It may become visible
       as those longitudes approach central meridian.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a generally low level. Region 7640 is capable of producing
       isolated M-class flares. Once the magnetic structure can be
       observed, this forecast may increase. At this time, Region
       7640 does not appear capable of generating a major flare.

            The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
       Isolated active conditions were experienced at various sites
       at various times.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the field should be
       predominantly unsettled on 21 Dec. Quiet conditions are
       forecast for 22-23 Dec.

            Event probabilities 21 dec-23 dec

                             Class M    25/25/25
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 dec-23 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over the
        middle and low latitudes.  High and polar latitudes also
        continued to see slightly below-normal propagation with
        night-sector signal instabilities dominating.  Similar
        conditions are expected over the next 72 hours, with gradual
        improvements over the high latitudes possible.  SWF activity
        is possible over middle and low latitude sunlit paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7635  N01W02  274  0040 CSO  04  004 BETA
7637  N09W59  331  0000 BXO  03  003 BETA
7640  N09E69  203  0090 DSO  09  005 BETA
7641  N03E74  198  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7632  N05W72  344                    PLAGE
7638  N12W80  352                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 DECEMBER TO 23 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7623 S13   158


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

     NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


**  End of Daily Report  **


