From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Mon Dec 20 08:33 EET 1993
Return-Path: solar-daily-request@lut.fi
Received: from lut.fi (listserv@lut.fi [157.24.10.8]) by cs.tut.fi (8.6.4/8.6.4) with SMTP id IAA22211 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>; Mon, 20 Dec 1993 08:33:26 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA24556; Mon, 20 Dec 1993 08:31:44 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA24510; Mon, 20 Dec 1993 08:29:57 +0200
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA08202; Sun, 19 Dec 93 23:28:51 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9312200628.AA08202@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 19 Dec 93 23:28:47 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1201
Content-Type: text
Content-Length: 7011
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 353, 12/19/93
10.7 FLUX=087.0  90-AVG=098        SSN=025      BKI=3322 2222  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A8.2     FLU1=2.4E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3332 2221  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=029,023,016,013,015,011,019,010   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.2   @ 2254UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.7   @ 0154UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2155UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0950UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0835UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1820UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 0208UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1858UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1820UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 0834UT  G6-AVG=+090,+022,-031
 FLUXFCST=STD:086,087,085;SESC:086,087,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,012,007/015,012,010
    KFCST=3344 4322 3333 3222  27DAY-AP=005,006   27DAY-KP=1211 1222 2211 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 DEC 93 was  43.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 DEC 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity remained very low. Current disk
       regions were generally stable or declining. Minor optical
       surging was visible at the northeast limb where old Region 7624
       is due to return.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       very low. An isolated C-class event is possible from Region
       7635 (N01E12) or from the east limb where several small
       regions are due to return during the forecast period.

            The field was quiet to unsettled. The filament related
       disturbance did not begin at the time expected.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be unsettled to slightly active on 20 Dec, unsettled
       on 21 Dec, and quiet to unsettled on 22 Dec.

            Event probabilities 20 dec-22 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 dec-22 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/15
                        Minor Storm           15/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/15
                        Minor Storm           15/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

               HF propagation conditions were normal over the low and
          middle latitudes.  High and polar latitude paths were
          slightly below-normal with continued minor signal
          degradation attributed to a weak ionosphere and sporadically
          enhanced periods of geomagnetic and auroral activity.
          Similar conditions are expected over the next 72 hours,
          although gradual improvements in signal conditions should
          take place over the next 72 hours for the high and polar
          latitude paths as geophysical activity wanes.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7635  N01E11  274  0050 CSO  05  004 BETA
7637  N07W48  333  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7632  N05W59  344                    PLAGE
7636  N14W50  335                    PLAGE
7638  N12W67  352                    PLAGE
7639  N08W28  313                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 DECEMBER TO 22 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7624 N04   192
7625 S15   185
7623 S13   158


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
18 Dec: 0544  0547  0549  B1.6                                         
        1516  1533  1551  B3.6  SN  7635  S00E28                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7635:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (50.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (50.0)

 Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


