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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 93 22:08:51 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                18 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 352, 12/18/93
10.7 FLUX=085.1  90-AVG=098        SSN=051      BKI=2233 2343  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=A5.7     FLU1=7.1E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2233 2343  PAI=013
  BOU-DEV=015,018,035,039,018,029,050,021   DEV-AVG=028 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.6   @ 1528UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.3   @ 1118UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1100UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0530UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1020UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1045UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55359NT @ 0046UT   BOUTF-MIN=55321NT @ 1823UT  BOUTF-AVG=55348NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1640UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-063NT@ 0914UT  G6-AVG=+089,+023,-032
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,086,087;SESC:085,086,087 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,018,012/022,018,012
    KFCST=2233 4544 4443 3322  27DAY-AP=005,005   27DAY-KP=2212 2221 1211 1222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 DEC 93 was  36.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 DEC 93 are: 3o 3+ 3- 3+   4- 3o 3+ 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7635 (N02E25)
       produced a moderate duration B3/SN at 18/1533Z. A small B-class
       group emerged at N12W53 and was numbered as Region 7638. Yohkoh
       x-ray images are showing a moderate enhancement at the northeast
       limb where old Region 7624 is due to return in two days.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a very low level. There is a remote possibility Region
       7635 could produce another long duration C-class flare as it
       did on 17 Dec.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled.
       Isolated active conditions were experienced at mid and high
       latitude sites at various times.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should become active on 19 Dec in response to a disappearing
       filament observed on 14-15 Dec from the southwest quadrant.
       Unsettled to active levels are expected on 20 Dec with
       primarily unsettled conditions forecast for 21 Dec.

            Event probabilities 19 dec-21 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 dec-21 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           20/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/25
                        Minor Storm           20/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths.  Middle and low latitude paths saw
       generally near-normal conditions with periods of minor signal
       degradation during the local night and sunrise sectors.  No
       significant changes are expected over the next 48 hours,
       although some weak improvements may begin to be observed on
       about 21 December.  The weak state of the ionosphere coupled
       with the minor solar disturbances which have arrived over the
       last several days will maintain periods of night-sector signal
       degradation and lower than normal MUFs over all regions.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7635  N02E24  274  0050 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7637  N07W34  332  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7638  N12W54  352  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7639  N08W15  313  0010 BXO  02  003 BETA
7632  N05W46  344                    PLAGE
7636  N14W37  335                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 DECEMBER TO 21 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7624 N04   192
7625 S15   185


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
53   S47W52 S50W62 S21W82 S21W82  010  ISO   NEG   013 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
17 Dec: 1948  2039  2150  C2.0  SF  7635  N07E43                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7635:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (100.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    000  ( 0.0)

 Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
17 Dec: 1948  2039  2150  C2.0  SF  7635  N07E43   IV

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


