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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 15 Dec 93 21:38:59 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 349, 12/15/93
10.7 FLUX=085.4  90-AVG=098        SSN=023      BKI=1222 3221  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=5.3E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2233 3221  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=007,012,016,015,027,012,013,006   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.5   @ 0702UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.5   @ 2303UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2300UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1710UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1225UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1440UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55355NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1909UT  BOUTF-AVG=55346NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+057,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1812UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-118NT@ 0739UT  G6-AVG=+084,+020,-032
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/025,015,010
    KFCST=4445 5444 2224 5220  27DAY-AP=018,020   27DAY-KP=2111 4543 3622 3433
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:10NT@2042UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 DEC 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 DEC 93 are: 1+ 2- 1- 1+   2- 2- 1o 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All of the regions on the
       disk were quiet and stable. A 16 degree filament near S02W41
       disappeared sometime between 14/2329-15/1214Z. The eruption was
       also visible in solar x-ray imagery.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours. A weak impulse was observed around
       2047Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be active for the next 24 hours as a result of
       coronal hole effects. Conditions should subside to mostly
       unsettled leves for the second and third days.

            Event probabilities 16 dec-18 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 dec-18 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/30/15
                        Minor Storm           25/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/15
                        Minor Storm           35/25/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/10/01

            Normal HF propagation conditions continued over the low
       and middle latitude paths, while slightly below-normal
       conditions persisted over the high and polar latitude paths
       (mostly over the night sectors). Propagation over the high and
       polar latitudes is expected to become more strongly degraded
       over the next 24 to 48 hours due to effects from the
       above-noted coronal hole disturbance. Middle latitudes may also
       see minor signal degradation on night-sector paths.  Conditions
       should begin improving slowly by about 17 or 18 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7634  S11W94  072  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7635  N02E63  275  0060 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7632  N05W08  346                    PLAGE
7636  N14E02  336                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 DECEMBER TO 18 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7628 S21   233


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
15/A0805             B2208       S10W28   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
14 Dec: 0934  0938  0941  B5.0                                         
        1057  1102  1106  C1.2                                         
        1204  1210  1214  C2.1                                         
        1527  1536  1542  B7.2                                         
        1916  1921  1930  B3.4                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    005  (100.0)

 Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


