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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9312150523.AA16036@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 14 Dec 93 22:23:46 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                14 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 348, 12/14/93
10.7 FLUX=087.9  90-AVG=098        SSN=036      BKI=0201 0000  BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=6.0E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1211 2211  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=004,017,004,005,004,004,004,004   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.1   @ 1211UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 0653UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2110UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2140UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2045UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1930UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55353NT @ 1142UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 2038UT  BOUTF-AVG=55348NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1813UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 1001UT  G6-AVG=+097,+020,-029
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,015/018,030,018
    KFCST=0002 3000 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=006,018   27DAY-KP=2111 2133 2111 4543
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 DEC 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 13 DEC 93 are: 1o 2- 0+ 2o   2o 1+ 1- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two small C-class flares were
       observed today but were not optically correlated. Three new
       regions were assigned: Region 7634 (N12W82), 7635 (N03E76), and
       7636 (N14E15). All are small and simple in structure. Region
       7635 is the return of old Region 7520 (L-273, N04) which pro-
       duced 3 C-flares on its previous disk transit.

       STD: Strong Ca XV and very strong Fe X emissions were observed
       on the southwest limb near S20 today and may be related to the
       departure of Region 7629.  A Yohkoh x-ray image has been
       appended to this report showing the location of the negative
       polarity southern polar coronal hole extension and the
       southwest limb emission.  A new (apparently minor) region is
       approaching the east limb.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to increase to active levels sometime late tomorrow
       and continuing through day two and part of day three. The
       increase is expected to result from effects of a favorably
       positioned coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 15 dec-17 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 dec-17 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/30/30
                        Minor Storm           05/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions except the high and polar latitude paths where sporadic
       auroral fading has continued to produce periods of poor
       propagation.  No improvements in these areas are expected
       before the anticipated coronal-hole-related disturbance
       produces additional signal degradation late on 15 and perhaps
       more particularly on 16 December.  At that time, minor signal
       degradation is expected to occur over the middle latitudes as
       well.  Night-sector paths will be most heavily affected.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7634  S12W82  073  0030 CRO  05  003 BETA
7635  N03E76  275  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7636  N14E15  336  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7631  N13W85  076                    PLAGE
7632  N05E05  346                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 DECEMBER TO 17 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7628 S21   233


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
53    E10    S45    W35    S08    015        NEG   170  10830A

STD: The coronal hole above is an extension of the southern polar
     coronal crown and is distinct in x-ray imagery.


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
13 Dec: 0243  0252  0259  B5.0                                         
        0617  0623  0626  C1.1                                         
        1119  1132  1144  B4.6                                         
        1153  1159  1204  B4.3                                         
        1509  1619  1724  B9.6                                         
        2342  2346  2350  B2.5                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    006  (100.0)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
13 Dec: 1509  1619  1724  B9.6                     Surge

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     13 December 1993, 17:10 UTC

                                    North
                   . ....   .........         .   . .
               ....,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,..,,..............               
            ....,,::::::,,,.........,,,,,,,..........,,,,,,,,........          
         .....,,:::::,..,.......,.........,,........,,,,,,,,,::,,,,,... .      
     ......,,,:::,,,,,..,......,........,,............,,,,,,.,::;::,,,,..    . 
  ...,,,,,,:::::,,,,,,,,...............,,,,,.,,,,.,,...,,.....,,:;:::,,,.....  
 ...,,,:::;;:,,,:::::::,,..........,,.....,,,.,,,.,,,,::,,..,,,,,,:::::,,,.....
..,,,:::;;;:,..,,::;;--;::,,,.. .........,,,,..,,,,,,,,,...,,,,,,,,::::::,,....
,,,:::;;;-::,,,,,,:------;;;:,::,,.......,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,.,,,,,:,:::::;:::,,,..
,:::;;---;::::::::::;;-+++||-;;:;::..........,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::::::;:::,,,.
::;-----;:::::::::::::;+|21!+-:,,,,,,........,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::;;;;:::,,,
:;-+||+-:::::,::::::::;-!22!+-:::::::,,.....,,...,,,,,:,,,,,,,,::::;;+!--;;;:::
;--+!1!-;:,,,,,,:,:::-+|1221|+-:::::::,,,,,.,.....,,,,,,,,,:::::::::;;-----;;;:
:;-+!24-;:,,,,,,,,,:-+|111!|-;::::::::::::,..,.,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,::::;;;;--++--;;:
:;;+!24-;:,,,,,,,,,:;+|++--;:::::::,,,,,::,,,,,,:,,,,,.,,,,,,,::;-;;;;;--+---;;
,:;;-||::,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::,:::,,,,,:,::,,,,,,,..,..,,,,,,,::::::;;;;;;-++++-;;
.,::;;-:;;:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::,,,,:::,,::,,.,,.,,,,.,,,::::;;;;;;;;;-+|111!+-;
.,,::;;:-!;,,.,,..,,,,.....,,,,,,...,,:,,,,...,,,....,::::;;;;;;;;;-|+|3#431!+;
 .,,::;;::,,,,,:,.........,,::,:::,,,,,...,,,,......,:::::;;;:;;;;--!|!4*3!|+--
 ..,,::::,,,,..,,.,.....,,,,,,::::::,,,.,....     ..,,::;;:::;;;;--+|2*@@#1|+--
 ...,,::::,.......,,,,.....,,,::::,,,...        ...,,,:;;;;;;;;;--++1*@@@#3!!|+
  ...,,::::,,,....,,......,,,,,,::,.          .,,,,,,,:;;;;;;;;;--+|1333332221|
   ...,,,::::,.,...............,...           .,,,,,,::;;;--;;;;;-|!1211!!!!|!!
    ....,,,:::,,,..........                   ..,,,,,,:::;;;;;;;-+!111!||||++--
      ...,,,::::,.,.........               .  ..,,,,,::::::::::;-+|!||+++--;;;:
         ...,,,::,,.                    ........,.,,,,,,:::::;;;;;----;;;;;::::
              ...,,,..                    ......,,,,,::::;;;---;;;;;;::::::::,,
                          ..              .....,,,,,::;;-----;;;;;;;;:::::,,,,,
                                ,             ..,,:;;;;;;;;;;;;;::::::,,,,,,...
                                ........,,,,,,,,,,::::::::::::::,,,,,,,.,......
                                      . ...................,,,,,.........      
                                                            .......            

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


