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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 13 Dec 93 22:27:41 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                13 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 347, 12/13/93
10.7 FLUX=087.8  90-AVG=098        SSN=022      BKI=0202 1100  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=4.1E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=1202 2111  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=004,012,003,015,008,006,004,004   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 0623UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 0847UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2205UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0555UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1135UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1200UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55354NT @ 1402UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1911UT  BOUTF-AVG=55348NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1859UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-064NT@ 0955UT  G6-AVG=+092,+023,-037
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,015,015/010,018,030
    KFCST=1223 4222 3334 4333  27DAY-AP=008,006   27DAY-KP=3233 2212 2111 2133
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 DEC 93 was  48.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 12 DEC 93 are: 2- 1o 2- 4-   2+ 2o 1- 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was at low levels. There are no
       significant regions on the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low levels, with a minimum chance of a C-flare.

       STD: A long-decay class B9.6 x-ray event was optically
       correlated with an eruptive prominence on the northwest limb
       near N14 between 15:43 and 15:51 UTC.  Recent Yohkoh images
       suggest a new region may be approaching the east limb.  A
       full-disk x-ray image from Yohkoh has been appended to this
       report.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active conditions
       are expected around the 15th and 16th of December.  STD: The
       responsible coronal hole is now crossing the central meridian.

            Event probabilities 14 dec-16 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 dec-16 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           05/15/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/25
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions continue to be near-normal over
       low and middle latitude paths and slightly below-normal for
       high and polar latitude paths.  The weak state of the high and
       polar latitude ionosphere will continue to produce minor signal
       degradation for signals crossing these regions, particularly
       through the local night and sunrise sectors.  Conditions are
       expected to worsen on 15 and more generally on 16 December due
       to enhanced geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Middle and low
       latitude paths should continue to see near-normal propagation
       except on 16 December where night sector paths may see minor
       signal degradation due to the anticipated enhancement in
       geomagnetic activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7629  S18W85  089  0020 HAX  01  001 ALPHA
7630  S10W89  093  0020 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7631  N13W72  076                    PLAGE
7632  N05E18  346                    PLAGE
7633  S17W91  095                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 DECEMBER TO 16 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7620 N03   268


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
13/B1543Z            B1551Z     N14W82     EPL   B9.6  135


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
12 Dec: 0200  0204  0207  B3.9  SF  7633  S20W62                       
        0226  0231  0233  B6.5  1F  7627  S22W75                       
        0419  0422  0426  B2.3  SF  7633  S20W64                       
        0559  0617  0634  B9.4                                         
        0822  0828  0832  B7.9  SF  7629  S21W55                       
        1202  1206  1214  B3.8                                         
        1752  1755  1758  B2.8                                         
        1835  1839  1844  B3.0                                         
        1955  1958  2002  B3.4                                         
        2054  2057  2101  B2.6                                         
        2118  2122  2126  B2.7                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7627:  0   0   0     0   1   0   0   0    001  ( 9.1)
  Region 7629:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 9.1)
  Region 7633:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (18.2)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (63.6)

 Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     12 December 1993, 18:10 UTC

                                    North
                 ... .......,,,,,...... .........
            ....,,,:::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,......                  
         .....,,:::;;;;;:,,,,,,,,,::,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,......           
       ...,,,,,:;;;;:::,,.,,,.....,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,::::::,,,....       
    ...,,,,:::;;;::,,,,.,,,...,...,,,,,......,...,,,,,....,,,:;;;;;::,,...     
   ..,,,:::;;-;;;:::,,,.,.......,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,......,,,;;;:;;;;:,,,.     
...,,::::;;---;;;;;::,.......,,,..,,,,...,,,,,,,:::,....,,,,,,,,,,:;;;;:,,. .. 
..,,::;;;--;;;-+++-;::,,,.,,..,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,...,,,,,,,,::,,::;-;;:,,....
,,::;;;---;::;+|||||+-:;;:,:,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,::,,,,,,,:::::::::::,:::;;;::,....
::;;;;-++-;;;;;+!1!!1|+-;;;:,,,,,..,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,:,::::::::::::::::::;;;:,,,..
:;;-++|+-;;;;;;-|12341+;:::::::,,,.,.,.,,::::,,..,,,,,:::::::::::;:::::;;::,,,,
,;-|!22!;;;;;;;--!4*41|-;;;-;:;;,,.,,,....::::::,,,,,,,::::;;;;;;;!|-;;;;;;:::,
,-|!!1*1;;;;;;+|!24*42!+;;;-;;;:::,,,,,.,.,::,,,,,,:,:::::;;;;;;-;-+-----+-;;::
,;!2113+;;::;+|134431!+-;;:;;;;::::,,,,,,,,:::,,,::,,,,:;;;;;;;;;;-+++++-2|+-;:
,;|!!13-;;::;-+!11!|+-;;;;;;;;;;:::,:,,::::::,,,,,,,,,,:;;-!+;-;;;;------||+-;:
,-++++|;:;;::;;----;;;-;::::::;::,,,:::,,,,,,.,,,,,::::::::;----;;;-+!!||||+-;;
,;;;;-++::;:::;::;:::;;-;,,:::::::,::,,,,:,,...,::;;;;;-;:;;;;;-;--|!3*41!|+--;
.,::;-|2;:;:,:::::,,,:::,,,,,,:::,,,,,,:,..  .,:;;;--;;;;;;;;;;;-++13@@*31|+--;
.,,::;;-:::-:,,,,,,,::;:::;;::,,,,,:,,,.   ..,:;;;;:;::;;;;;;;;-+|!13*4*#2|+--;
..,,:::;;::::,,,,,,::::::::::::,,......     ,::::;;;;;;;;;----++|14@@@@@@42|+-;
 ..,,:::;;,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::,,,..         ..,:,,:;--;;;;---+-+++|2@@@@@@#32|+--
 ...,,:::;;:,,,,,,,,,,::::::,           .,,,,,::;;;-----;;;----+|1343***31|++--
  ...,,:::;;:,,,,,,,.,,....             .,,,:,,:;------;;;-;--+|!1122221!|+---;
   ....,:::;;;:,,,,..,..     Coronal     .,:,,::;;;;--;;;;;;;;-++|!1!!!||++--;;
     ....,,::;;::,,....       Hole     ....,,,,:::;:::::;;;:::;-+|!|||++----;;;
         ...,,,:::,     .            .......,,,::::::::::::;;;-+---------;;;:::
              ...,,,,.                ..,,,,,::,:::::;;;--+++++---;;;;;;;::::,,
                        .              ..,,,,:,,,:::;--+++++++-----;;;;::::,,,,
                                           ....,::;--++++++-----;;;;:::::,,.,..
                                      ..,,,,:,,,:::::;;;;;;;;;;:::::,,,,,......
                                        ...............,,,,,:,,,,,,.....      .
                                                         . ........            

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


