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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 11 Dec 93 20:48:28 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 345, 12/11/93
10.7 FLUX=092.5  90-AVG=097        SSN=059      BKI=2132 1200  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=1.6E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2232 2210  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=015,009,038,010,008,012,004,004   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.5   @ 2337UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 1959UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1405UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0815UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0750UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1100UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55353NT @ 1522UT   BOUTF-MIN=55336NT @ 1857UT  BOUTF-AVG=55347NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1609UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-072NT@ 1004UT  G6-AVG=+085,+022,-035
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,010,010
    KFCST=1223 3221 1223 3221  27DAY-AP=011,009   27DAY-KP=1223 3423 3322 2123
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 DEC 93 was  49.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 DEC 93 are: 2- 2+ 2- 3-   3- 2o 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. All regions on the disk were
       quiet and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled.
       Some brief isolated active periods occurred at high latitudes
       from 0600-1200UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 12 dec-14 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 dec-14 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over the low and
       middle latitude regions.  However, conditions over the high and
       polar latitude regions continued to be below-normal with
       relatively poor propagation.  Poor propagation has been
       confined mostly to the night and sunrise sectors.  Although
       conditions may improve somewhat over the next several days,
       provided geomagnetic activity remains quiet, propagation will
       likely be slow to recover due to the weak state of the
       ionosphere.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7629  S21W54  084  0100 CAO  10  012 BETA
7630  S10W57  087  0050 CSO  08  005 BETA
7632  N05E44  346  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7633  S18W60  090  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7627  S15W77  107                    PLAGE
7631  N13W46  076                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 DECEMBER TO 14 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7620 N03   268


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
10 Dec: 2258  2305  2310  B2.5                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (100.0)

 Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


