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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 9 Dec 93 21:02:23 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                09 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 343, 12/09/93
10.7 FLUX=098.4  90-AVG=097        SSN=079      BKI=0000 0001  BAI=000
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=1.4E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2212 2212  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=004,004,004,002,002,002,002,005   DEV-AVG=003 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.9   @ 0215UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0635UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0955UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1335UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55354NT @ 0201UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1747UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1939UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-075NT@ 0952UT  G6-AVG=+088,+028,-048
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,015,015
    KFCST=1112 3211 1223 4211  27DAY-AP=005,008   27DAY-KP=2221 2111 2132 3221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 DEC 93 was  37.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 08 DEC 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Flare activity was minimal.
       A new region may be coming into view near N07, but it is as yet
       unnumbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

       STD: A full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image has been appended to this
       report which shows the increased emissions near N07 and a
       narrow southern-hemisphere coronal hole which has not yet fully
       rotated into view around the west limb.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet. Yesterday's storm abruptly
       gave way to the very quiet conditions seen now.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 10 dec-12 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 dec-12 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  However, global MUFs are depressed between 20 and 30
       percent below normal.  Similar conditions are expected to
       persist over the next 72 hours, through 12 December inclusive.
       There are still reports of VHF openings in the Australian
       regions.  FM reception was reported in Brisbane and Pakenham on
       frequencies as high as 100 MHz.  These openings are likely the
       result of persistent sporadic-E.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7627  S15W51  108  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7629  S21W26  083  0090 CAO  09  014 BETA
7630  S09W27  084  0080 CAO  09  012 BETA
7631  N15W17  074  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7632  N07E72  345  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 DECEMBER TO 12 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
53   S30E72 S30E72 S08E30 S04E44  011  ISO   NEG   010 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
08 Dec: 0146  0151  0156  C1.0  SF  7629  S22E01                       
        0429  0433  0435  B3.9                                         
        0548  0558  0604  B6.2                                         
        0921  0925  0928  B3.4                                         
        0930  0941  0948  C1.8  SF  7629  S22W04                       
        1012  1018  1023  B6.9  SF  7627  S24W21                       
        1129  1134  1136  B5.6                                         
        1215  1218  1220  B6.3                                         
        1223  1226  1231  B4.8                                         
        1458  1503  1508  B7.9  SF  7629  S22W08                       
        1756  1800  1803  B3.5  SF  7629  S21W08                       
        1819  1823  1827  B3.0                                         
        1937  1941  2013  B8.3  SF  7630  S10W11                       
       B2053 U2053 A2056        SF  7629  S21W09                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7627:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 7.1)
  Region 7629:  2   0   0     5   0   0   0   0    005  (35.7)
  Region 7630:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 7.1)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (50.0)

 Total Events: 014 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     08 December 1993, 20:10 UTC

                                    North
            .....,,,,,,...........      ..    ..  .... .
     .........,,,::::;;;;;::,,,,,,,,.........      ...,,,,....... .            
  ..........,,,::;;;;;;::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,....     ...,,,,,.....   ..       
  ........,,:::;;-;;:,:,,,,,,,,,,....,,:;,,,...,,,...,.,,,,,,::,,,,,,,....     
 .....,,,,::;;---:,,,,,,,...,,,,........,.,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;;;;;::,,...    
 ...,,,,:;--+++-;::,,,,,,,,,,,...........,,,,,,,,,.....,,,,,,,,,:;;;;;::,,. .  
..,,,::;;-+++;:;;;;:::::::,,,,,,...,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,...,,,,,,,,,,,:::;+-;--;,... 
.,::;--++++-;;::::::::::,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,...,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;+21||-,,...
,;;;--+|!!-::::,:::::,,,:,,:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.......,,::;!*3!+:,,..
:;-++|||1+;::::::::::,,,::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...,,,,,,::-11|::,,,
;-+|!122|;:::::::::::::,:::::::::::,,,,,:,::,:,,::,:::,,,,,,,,.,,:,,,,:-+;:::,,
+-+!1441-;::,,:::::::::,::::::::::::::::;:::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;--;;::
-+|!24*1-;::,:::;:::::::::::::::::;;;::;;;;;;;:::;:::::::::::,,,,,,,,,::-++--;;
;-||!34|;;:::::::;:,,,,:::::::::::;;;;;;;;---;;;;;;;:;::::::::::,,,,;;::;!++++-
+|||!1!-;;:::::,,,,,,,,,,:;;;;-;:::;;;;:;;;---+--;;;;;;;;;;;;:::,,,:::::;!|++++
;;--+++-;;::,,,,,:::::::::::::;:::::::;;;-+|!2321|--;;;;;;;;;;::,::::::;-!!!|+-
,:;;-++-;;:,,,..,::;:;;;:::::::;:::::;;;-+212*#@4!+--;;;;;;;;;;:::::;;;-+21!|++
,,::;-+-;;:,,,..::;;;-;;::::::::::::;----+!13#@#1!||+++++--;;;;:::;;;;-+221!|+;
.,::;;-+--::,,..:;;--;::::::::::::;-----||!1231|!1111!2441|+-;;;;;;;;+|!*32!|+;
.,,:;;;--;:,,...,:;::;:::::::::;-;-----|!24***42112223*@@*2!|+-----;--+1221|+-;
..,,::;;-;,...,,::;:;;;;;;;;;;;;----;;++|!12#@#*21332###@@#4!++------+!11!!+--;
..,,,,:::;:,..,,:::::;;;:;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;-+|12221112*#@@@@#3!++------|!!!|+--;;
 ...,,,::::;,..,:::::;;;;-;;::;:::;;;;;;--+++|!!11123*#4321||++-----+||++---;;:
  ....,,,,,::,..,,,:::;;;;;:::::::;;;;;;-----++++||||!!!|||++-----++++++---;;;:
    ........,,,,..,,,,,,::::,:,:::::::;:;;;;;--;;;---------------+--+----;;;;;:
              ...,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::::::;::;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;--++------;;;;;::::
                 ...,,,,,::;;:::::::;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;---+------;;;;::::::,,
                     .....,,,::::::;;;;;;;;;----;;;;;--++++++----;;;;;::::,,,,,
                              ......,,::,,,::;;;;;;;;--+++++----;;;:::::,,,,...
                                   . ........,,::::::::;;;;;;;;;;;:::,,,,......
                                          . .....,,,,,,,,,,,,,::,,,,,.....    .
                                                ..................  .          

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


