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From: Risto Kotalampi <rko>
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Subject: [oler@rho.uleth.ca: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 December]
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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 8 Dec 93 20:46:50 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                08 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 342, 12/08/93
10.7 FLUX=105.1  90-AVG=097        SSN=084      BKI=5565 5331  BAI=038
BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=5666 5442  PAI=051
  BOU-DEV=100,100,123,079,105,025,30319,005   DEV-AVG=3857 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.8   @ 0941UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.7   @ 1758UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.0
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 0800UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 1730UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1050UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1120UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55373NT @ 0226UT   BOUTF-MIN=55306NT @ 1106UT  BOUTF-AVG=55337NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+033,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+104NT@ 1729UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-117NT@ 0732UT  G6-AVG=+058,+038,-065
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,100,100;SESC:105,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/023,015,010
    KFCST=3345 6321 1223 5322  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=2322 2111 2221 2111
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 DEC 93 was  48.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 DEC 93 are: 3- 1+ 1- 2-   5- 4- 3+ 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7629 (S21W13) continued to
       simplify, producing two C-class flares in the process. A 17
       degree-long filament disappeared from S39E32 early in the day.
       A prominence erupted from N13E90 during the latter part of the
       period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm
       conditions over the past 24 hours. This disturbance is
       occurring during what had been a recurrent quiet interval over
       the past five months. It is not clear as to what transitory
       phenomenon caused the storming.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active over the next 24 hours, as
       the disturbance wanes. Strictly unsettled conditions should
       end the period.

       STD: Auroral activity was observed into the northern United
       States over the last 24 hours.  Several reports of strong
       activity were received early in the UTC day, including color
       variations and rapid pulsations.  Activity has since subsided
       substantially. Conditions are no longer visible over the middle
       latitudes.

            Event probabilities 09 dec-11 dec

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 dec-11 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                50/30/15
                        Minor Storm           25/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/35/30
                        Minor Storm           35/25/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

            STD: HF propagation conditions were well below-normal over
       the last 24 hours.  Strong geomagnetic and auroral activity
       produced a particularly strong corresponding ionospheric
       disturbance over the middle, high, and polar latitude regions.
       MUFs were depressed by up to 40 percent for high-latitude
       paths.  This, combined with periods of strong fading,
       multipathing, and auroral absorption, resulted in near-useless
       propagation for transauroral and many transpolar circuits.
       Middle latitude paths also saw periods of strong signal
       degradation, particularly during the local night hours.
       Conditions began improving fairly rapidly after 18:00 UTC and
       are now well on the way toward reaching near-normal levels by
       the end of 09 December for most regions.  Australian stations
       have reported periods of strong continent-wide VHF
       communications (including TV) on frequencies approaching (and
       perhaps in a few cases exceeding) 100 MHz, likely attributed to
       persistent sporadic-E.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7627  S18W38  108  0020 CSO  04  003 BETA
7629  S21W13  083  0120 DAO  10  026 BETA
7630  S09W13  083  0120 DAO  09  025 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 DECEMBER TO 11 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7618 N07   339


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
08/A0224             B1509       S35E21   DSF
08/A0930             B2210       S38E20   DSF    C1.8   18
08/ 1937     1941     2013       S10W11   LDE    B8.3   36


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
07 Dec: 0030  0050  0104  C3.8  SF  7629  S22E12                       
        0208  0219  0229  C4.2  SF  7629  S21E12                       
        0415  0423  0429  C1.7  SF  7629  S21E10                       
        0618  0623  0630  C1.0                                         
        0711  0712  0732        SF  7629  S22E09                       
        0819  0828  0832  B9.3  SF  7627  S18W11                       
        0837  0845  0849  B9.6                                         
        1129  1206  1221  B8.0                                         
        1500  1508  1513  B4.5                                         
        1715  1722  1720  B6.2                                         
        1943  1950  1959  B5.7                                         
        2047  2052  2056  B6.2  SF  7630  S11E02                       
        2159  2203  2210  B3.3                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7627:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 7.7)
  Region 7629:  3   0   0     4   0   0   0   0    004  (30.8)
  Region 7630:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 7.7)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (53.8)

 Total Events: 013 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
07 Dec: 2159  2203  2210  B3.3                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **



