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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 93 20:56:36 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 341, 12/07/93
10.7 FLUX=107.0  90-AVG=097        SSN=099      BKI=2212 5334  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B2.6     FLU1=1.3E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3112 5434  PAI=015
  BOU-DEV=019,010,006,009,072,038,027,048   DEV-AVG=028 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.2   @ 0219UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.2   @ 2342UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1055UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1255UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1545UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2130UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55359NT @ 1224UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 2024UT  BOUTF-AVG=55349NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+122NT@ 1620UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 0952UT  G6-AVG=+090,+019,-034
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,105,105;SESC:110,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,005
    KFCST=1113 4321 1123 4211  27DAY-AP=011,006   27DAY-KP=3333 3331 2322 2111
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*AURMIDWCH
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 DEC 93 was  48.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 DEC 93 are: 2o 1- 1+ 2o   2+ 2- 2o 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7629 (S22E02) slowed its
       growth and simplified magnetically. It had only a few C-class
       subflares during the day. However, it remains the most
       interesting region on the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was generally quiet until midway in
       the period. Active to minor storm conditions have prevailed
       since.

       STD: A sudden magnetic impulse was observed from Canadian
       magnetometers near 12:00 UTC.  Geosynchronous satellites also
       observed the impulse, which was followed by active levels of
       geomagnetic activity.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled. The current disturbance
       should decline by early 08 December.

       STD: Periods of minor storming have been observed over the
       middle and high latitude regions just prior to the release of
       this report.  Additional minor (to major) storming over the
       middle and high latitudes will remain possible until
       approximately 15:00 UTC on 08 December.

            Event probabilities 08 dec-10 dec

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 dec-10 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over the low and
       middle latitude paths.  High and polar latitude paths were
       generally below-normal with poor propagation conditions
       attributed to minor enhanced levels of auroral ionization
       through the night-sectors and increased levels of geomagnetic
       activity experienced after approximately 12:00 UTC.  Poor
       conditions are expected to persist over the higher latitude
       paths, particularly on night and sunrise-crossing circuits,
       for the next 24 hours.  Conditions should begin to improve
       thereafter.  Middle latitude paths will see near-normal
       propagation with enhanced levels of fading over night and
       sunrise-crossing paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7623  S15W76  159  0010 BXO  04  006 BETA
7627  S18W25  108  0050 CSO  05  006 BETA
7629  S22E02  081  0130 DSO  10  026 BETA-GAMMA
7630  S09E02  081  0100 DAO  08  021 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 DECEMBER TO 10 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7618 N07   339


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0135 0135 0136                         1600


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
06 Dec: 0638  0638  0642        SF  7630  S09E26                       
        0645  0705  0731  B7.1  SF  7629  S23E25                       
       B0710 U0715 A0730        SF  7629  S22E26                       
        0736  0744  0746        SF  7629  S22E24                       
        0747  0756  0814  C1.0                                         
        0801  0808  0826        SF  7629  S22E24                       
        0911  0916  0931  B5.1                                         
        0934  0938  0942  B6.0                                         
        1034  1041  1048  C1.0                                         
        1221  1232  1237  C1.7  SF  7629  S22E21                       
        1343  1352  1357  B4.8                                         
        1515  1528  1538  B6.2                                         
        1604  1612  1622  B7.8  SF  7629  S22E21                       
        1713  1721  1734  C9.7  1N  7629  S22E19                  33   
       B1746 U1746 A1814        SF  7629  S21E19                       
        2036  2049  2057  C7.5  SF  7629  S23E16                       
        2227  2254  2256        SF  7629  S21E14                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7629:  3   0   0     9   1   0   0   0    010  (58.8)
  Region 7630:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 5.9)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    006  (35.3)

 Total Events: 017 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


