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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9312080956.AA14672@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: ALERT: Minor Geomagnetic Storm Alert - 08 Dec
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 8 Dec 93 2:56:08 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: RO

                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                        MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT

                        ISSUED: 09:00 UT, 08 DECEMBER

                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


ATTENTION:

     An unexpectedly strong geomagnetic disturbance arrived near 12:00
     UTC on 07 December.  The disturbance has gradually intensified
     since then, producing minor to major storming over the middle
     latitude regions, and minor to severe storming over the high
     latitude regions.  Activity surpassed the minor storm threshold
     at 09:00 UTC, and should continue at minor to major storm levels
     through to about 15:00 or 18:00 UTC before beginning to subside.

     Poor to occasionally near-useless propagation is being observed
     over many high and polar latitude paths, particularly on
     transauroral circuits where levels of auroral absorption and
     fading have increased substantially over the last 24 hours.
     Effects have migrated to middle latitude paths (particularly
     night-sector paths) where enhanced fading and some multipathing
     is also being observed.  Conditions are expected to remain good
     to occasionally poor over the middle latitude regions throughout
     most of 08 December.  Improvements should be observed on 09
     December over all regions.

    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  08 December (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  08 - 09 December

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MINOR - MAJOR

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  APPROX. 24 TO 36 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  6
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  LOW - MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - OCCASIONALLY POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR - MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  POOR TO OCCASIONALLY USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  30% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
        Presently uncertain.  Under investigation.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 20 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 20 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MINOR
        MINOR STORM : 35 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 25 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MINOR - MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : OBSERVED      ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MINOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 35 - 40


**  End of Alert  **


