From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA (CARY OLER)
To: haminfo@lut.fi
Subject: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW
Date: Thu, 23 May 91 20:01:01 MDT

                ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
                            May 24 to June 02, 1991
 
                 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                    P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
                                   T0K 2E0
 
                                  ---------
 
 
SOLAR TERRESTRIAL REVIEW FOR 17 MAY TO 23 MAY
 
     Solar activity between 17 May and 23 May ranged from very low to high.
Departing Region 6619 provided the most impressive activity during the
period.  At 05:45 UT on 18 May, a major class X2.8/1N Tenflare erupted from
Region 6619.  The location of the flare was N32W84.  The flare was associated
with a moderate intensity Type II sweep and a weak Type IV, as well as with a
5,700 s.f.u. radio burst at 2695 MHz.  Immediate concerns were raised
concerning a possible proton bombardment from this event.  Fortunately, no
significant protons were detected.  A minor proton enhancement was observed
(the suspected cause is the class X2.8/1N flare) and remains in progress at
the present time.  Although proton levels never surpassed event thresholds,
the duration of the enhancement has been relatively long.  Proton levels are
now very near background levels.
 
     Aside from this major flare, no significant solar events occurred.
Other items of interest included several filament disappearances in the
10-20 degree range.  One of these is suspected of producing a sudden magnetic
impulse of around 40-55 nanoteslas (43 nT at Boulder, 51 nT locally) at 00:18
UT on 22 May.  This event has been followed by generally unsettled to active
geomagnetic conditions since then.
 
     Geomagnetic activity on 17 May was generally active over most middle
latitudes, while major geomagnetic storming was observed over the northerly
middle and high latitudes.  The activity was preceded by a SI of 40-50 nT
earlier on the 16th.  Significant levels of auroral activity were observed
over many middle latitude locations.  Equatorward auroral oval expansion was
observed during this storm period.  Auroral activity was reported as far
south as southern Montana, and northern South Dakota over the northern
hemisphere, while Australian observers also reported observing auroral
activity on 17 May.  No low latitude auroral activity was reported over the
northern hemisphere.  Geomagnetic and auroral activity then subsided until 22
May, when some resurgence was observed over the higher latitudes.
 
     HF radio propagation conditions were normal to below normal throughout
the week.  Ionospheric conditions were rather weak during the period.  HF
propagation on 10 meters was also below normal.  However, an interesting
phenomena has occurred on the VHF bands lately.  Unusual openings on 6 meters
have been observed by many stations from the high to the low latitudes.  The
openings have been generally observed over a period of a few hours with slow
fading and relatively low signal strengths.  These conditions have so far
been reported throughout most of Canada and over parts of the U.S.  The cause
of these openings has not yet been firmly determined.
 
 
SHORT TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST
 
     Solar indices are expected to bottom out this week.  Region 6615, which
was responsible for six M-class flares last rotation, is expected to return
back to the eastern limb on 25-26 May in the southeastern quadrant near S10.
This region may return in a configuration capable of producing M-class
flares.  Indices are then expected to begin a slow rise until 30 May to
01 June when several other major regions are due to return (including Region
6619).  Thereafter, indices should rise rapidly toward a peak of between 230
and 245 (10.7 cm solar flux vlaues) near 07 - 10 June.  There is a risk for a
few more isolated major flares with the rotation of these active regions back
into view.  Proton activity cannot be discounted.
 
     Geomagnetic activity has increased lately to generally unsettled to
active levels.  Geomagnetic activity is expected to surpass minor storm
levels between 25 - 27 May over the middle latitudes, while high latitudes
may observe major geomagnetic storming.  Activity is expected to peak during
the 25-27 May period (target date is presently 26 May) with planetary
A-indices between 35 and 60.  High latitudes could observe isolated
(localized) A-indices of between 45 and 100 (with values between 45 and 75
being more probable).
 
     Auroral activity will become moderate to very high over the northerly
middle and high latitude regions during the 25-27 May period.  There is a
small risk for visible auroral activity over the lower latitudes,
particularly after the Moon sets.  Lunar phase will interfere with attempts
to view auroral activity.
 
     HF propagation conditions will become increasingly degraded until 26 or
27 May.  Thereafter, a slow and gradual improvement will take place as
ionospheric conditions begin to recover and strengthen.  A full recovery to
more normal conditions is not expected until early June.  Propagation
conditions during the disturbed period will be rather poor, particularly over
the high and northerly middle latitudes.  Fairly significant levels of
fading, noise and distortion are anticipated for most middle and high
latitude paths on 26 and 27 May (possibly 25 May as well).  Lower latitudes
may not be as strongly affected, but will still suffer degradation in signal
qualities and signal range.
 
     There is a good opportunity for VHF auroral backscatter communications
above 50 MHz (50 - 144 MHz should be good) on 25-27 May over the high and
middle latitudes.  Provided auroral and geomagnetic activity reach forecasted
intensities, backscatter conditions should be possible over fairly wide
areas.  Conditions should remain fairly favorable between 25-27 May, but may
also be possible over more localized areas on 28 May.
 
 
SUMMARY OF ALL ACTIVE REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR DISK AS OF 23 MAY
 
Region #   Location   LO   Area   Class   LL    Spots     Magnetic Type
--------   --------  ---   ----   -----   --    -----     -------------
  6633      S12W29   149   0630    ESO    14     012      BETA
  6637      S26W04   124   0000    AXX    00     001      ALPHA
  6638      N18W22   142   0390    CAO    10     023      BETA
  6639      S29E16   104   0120    CSO    03     005      BETA
  6640      S19W39   159   0060    CRO    03     005      BETA
  6641      S27W33   153   0030    BXO    05     007      BETA
  6643      S25E33   087   0000    AXX    00     001      ALPHA
  6644      N20E64   056   0600    DAO    07     008      BETA
  6645      N05E29   091   0000    AXX    02     003      ALPHA
  6646      S14W16   136   0060    CRO    04     008      BETA
 
NOTES:  Area is in million square kilometers.  Angular extent (LL) and solar
longitude (LO) are in degrees.  For more information regarding the terminology
used above, request the Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms from:
"oler@hg.uleth.ca".
 
 
H-ALPHA PLAGES WITHOUT SPOTS.  LOCATIONS VALID AS OF 00:00 UT ON 23 MAY
 
REGION           LOCATION            LO             COMMENTS (IF ANY)
------           --------            ---      -------------------------------
 6630             S11W65             185                   NONE
 6634             N16W85             205
 6635             S24W62             182
 6636             N20W41             161
 6642             S08W84             204
 
 
ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN BETWEEN 23 MAY AND 25 MAY
 
Region   Latitude  Longitude (Helio.)
------   --------  ---------
 6608      S22        022
 6615      S08        350
 
NOTES:  For definitions regarding the above, request the "Glossary of Solar
        Terrestrial Terms" from "oler@hg.uleth.ca".
 
 
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RECENT PLANETARY (GLOBAL) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
 
                   Cumulative Geomagnetic Activity History
         Peak Planetary Geomagnetic Activity during the past 96 hours
     ____________________________________________________________________
    |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |        |        |        |        | HIGH       |
    | VERY SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |        | HIGH       |
    |      SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |        | MODERATE   |
    |       MAJOR STORM |        |        |        |        | LOW - MOD. |
    |       MINOR STORM |        |        |        |        | LOW        |
    |       VERY ACTIVE |        |        |        |   *    | NONE       |
    |            ACTIVE |        |        |    **  |********| NONE       |
    |         UNSETTLED |   *****|*  **** |*  *****|********| NONE       |
    |             QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE       |
    |        VERY QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE       |
    |-------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
    | Geomagnetic Field |  Sun.  |  Mon.  |  Tue.  |  Wed.  |  Anomaly   |
    |    Conditions     |   Given in 3-hourly UT intervals  | Intensity  |
    |____________________________________________________________________|
 
NOTES:
       The data above represents preliminary planetary geomagnetic activity.
Data from many magnetic observatories around the world are used in
constructing the above chart.  The first graph line for each day represents
geomagnetic activity which occurred between 00 UT and 03 UT.  The second
graph line represents activity which occurred between 03 UT and 06 UT, etc.
For information regarding the interpretation and/or use of these charts, send
a request for the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to:
oler@hg.uleth.ca.
 
 
PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (24 MAY - 02 JUNE)
    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |   |   | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |   | **|***|** | * |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE | **|***|***|***|***| * |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***| * |   |   | NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| * | NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |       Given in 8-hour intervals       | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|
 
                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70%
 
NOTES:
       Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
periods in excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from
the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.
 
 
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS
 
                   Cumulative Graphical Analysis of
                           Solar Activity
    ____________________________________________________________
267|                     *F*                                    | HIGH
257|*                    *F*      F = Major Flare(s)            | HIGH
247|*                  ***F**                                   | Moderate
237|*F                 ***F**                                   | Moderate
227|*FF               F***F****                   ***           | Moderate
216|*FF              *F***F****F                 *****          | Moderate
206|*FF              *F***F****F                ******F*        | Moderate
196|*FF** *    ***  **F***F****F               *******F*        | Moderate
186|*FF**F*F*F***** **F***F****F               *******F**F      | Low
176|*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F*             ********F**F      | Low
165|*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F**            ********F**F*F    | Low
155|*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F**     ***************F**F*F*   | Low
145|*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F***    ***************F**F*F****| Low
135|*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F**********************F**F*F****| Low
125|*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F**********************F**F*F****| Very Low
    ------------------------------------------------------------
               Cumulative 60 day Solar Activity Record
                   Start Date:   March  24, 1991
 
NOTES:
       Left-hand column digits represent the 10.7 cm solar radio flux
obtained from Ottawa.  The right-hand column describes the relative solar
activity for that period based on the average number of major and minor
flares that can be expected for related solar flux values.  Plot lines
labeled with the letter "F" represent days where at least one major flare
occurred (ie. class M5 or greater flare).
 
 
GRAPHICAL 20-DAY SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTION
 
                           Solar Activity
 _________________________________________________________________
| 245 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 236 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|  |  |  |
| 228 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|  |  |  |**|**|  |
| 219 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|
| 210 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 201 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 193 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 184 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 175 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 166 |  |  |**|**|  |  |**|**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 158 |  |**|  |  |**|**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 149 |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 140 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|-----|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|
|Solar|24|25|26|27|28|29|30|31|01|02|03|04|05|06|07|08|09|10|11|12|
|Flux |          May          |               June                |
 -----------------------------------------------------------------
 
                      CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 60%
 
 
HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (24 MAY - 02 JUNE)
 
                              High Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  *|* *|
 -------   |           POOR |***|*  |   |   |  *|* *|***|***|** | * |
   70%     |      VERY POOR |   | **|***|***|** | * |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                             Middle Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  *|  *|* *|
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |***|*  |   |  *|* *|***|***|** |** | * |
 -------   |           POOR |   | **|***|** | * |   |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                                Low Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |* *|*  |   |   |   |   |  *|* *|* *|***|
  LEVEL    |           FAIR | * | **|* *|* *|***|***|** | * | * |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   65%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
NOTES:
 
        NORTHERN HEMISPHERE                    SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
  High latitudes >= 55      deg. N.  |   High latitudes >= 55      deg. S.
Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N.  | Middle latitudes >= 35 < 55 deg. S.
   Low latitudes  < 40      deg. N.  |    Low latitudes  < 35      deg. S.
 
 
 
POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (24 MAY - 02 JUNE)
   INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS
 
                   HIGH LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%| |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL| * |   |   |   |   |   | **|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | |*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM|* *|** | * | * | **|***|*  |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |  *|* *|* *|*  |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |  *|* *|*  |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| |*|*|*| | | | | | |
|      60% |  *|***|***|***|*  |   |   |   |   |   | 60%|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | |
|      40% |***|***|***|***|***|* *|* *|   |   |   | 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
 
 
                  MIDDLE LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL| * | * |   |   | * | **|***|***|***|***| 40%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM|* *|* *|***|***|* *|*  |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |  *|* *|*  |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| |*|*|*| | | | | | |
|      40% |* *|***|***|***|* *|* *|*  | * | * | * | 40%|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
 
                    LOW LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL|** | * | * | * | **|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM|  *|* *|* *|* *|*  |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |  *|* *|***|***|** | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| |*|*|*| | | | | | |
|      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
 
NOTES:
      These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 220 MHz
bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
the HF predictions charts.  For more information, request the document
"Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "oler@hg.uleth.ca".
 
 
AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (24 MAY - 02 JUNE)
 
                            High Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH | * |***|***|***| * |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***| * | * |   |
   75%     |            LOW |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                          Middle Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE | * |***|***|***| * |   |   |   |   |   |
   65%     |            LOW |***|***|***|***|***| * | * |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                             Low Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   50%     |            LOW |   | * |***| * |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
NOTE:
     For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: oler@hg.uleth.ca.
 
 
**  End of Report  **
